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Chapter 1 – Introduction to Point and Figure charts

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Key Takeaways

  • Market conditions and their impact on trading decisions
  • Key levels and price action analysis
  • Risk management strategies for this setup

Point and Figure charts are unique to Technical Analysis. Their roots are in the markets and have fascinated Technical Analysts for over a hundred years. Chart 1-1 below shows a Point and Figure chart ofWhitbread pic, the same company shown in Chart 1 in the previous chapter.

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Chapter 1 – Introduction to Point and Figure charts

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Chart 1 – 1 : Point and Figure chart of Whitbread pic

It is not often that a discipline – in this case Technical Analysis – can claim complete ownership of a technique, with the knowledge that other disciplines could not use it even if they wanted to.

So unusual are Point and Figure charts that most students of Technical Analysis avoid them completely. This author has dedicated the last 20 years to educating and encouraging the wider use of Point and Figure chart analysis. One thing that makes them clearer to students is an understanding of where they came from and how they developed.

History and development

No one really knows precisely where the Point and Figure charts came from, or who invented them. They weren’t always called Point and Figure charts, as you will see. Writing in 1933, Victor De Villiers and Owen Taylor state that the Point and Figure Method is over 60 years old. Some have therefore attributed them to Charles Dow, which seems to be the easy option,

27

The Definitive Guide to Point and Figure

as Dow is regarded by many as the father of Technical Analysis. It is unlikely that any one person invented Point and Figure charts. In fact they probably weren’t invented at all. It is more likely that they were born out of necessity – a need to be able to record price movement quickly and efficiently whilst on the move. ‘On the move’ being not at your desk, but standing on the trading floor or in front of the ticker tape machine in the broker’s office, as most private traders would have been. What the trader wanted was a general idea of what the share price was doing. The most obvious way therefore, was to simply write down the prices on the back of a cigarette packet or notebook as the share traded as follows:

9/4 10’14 llYz 11’14 12Yz 12’14 13’14 15 16Yz 15 14’14 13Y2 12 10’14 10 11% llYz 14 15 16 17 19Yz 20 2f% 19 1�/4 19Y2 20

It was not long before he2 realised that there was no point in writing down all the fractions3, because firstly it took more time, and secondly the fractional changes were irrelevant to the general trend, which is what he was trying to see. He therefore left out the ‘I4’s, the Yz’s and the Ws, so his record of the day’s trading started to look like this:

He now had a record of what the share was doing, but this is what it would look like at the end of a busy trading session.

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2 ‘he’ has been used for convenience, because firstly it is unlikely that any ‘she’s’ were trading on the floor 120 years ago and secondly writing ‘he or she’ interrupts the flow of the text. Many of the world’s best Technical Analysts are women and the author hopes that they do not take offence.

3 U.S. markets have always traded using fractions rather than decimals. 28

Chapter 1 – Introduction to Point and Figure charts

It would have been a mass of numbers. The only thing he could glean from it was the first price ofthe day, 9, and the last price ofthe day, 16. He could not see, at a glance, how it had traded during the day; what the high or low was; or where most ofthe trading had taken place. So, he had to come up with a better way of recording the prices. How about writing down the numbers in columns so that the highest and lowest price could easily be seen? Logically, he decided on a rising column for rising prices and a falling column for falling prices. Taking the first few prices from our series, his tabulation would have looked something like this.

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13 12 12 11 11 10 9

Ftigure 1-1: Table of rising prices

It didn’t take him long to work out that it was unnecessary to write down a price twice if it traded at the same price in succession. So, the double 11s and 12s disappeared. He also realised very quickly that when the price changed direction he would have to move across to the next column and write the number in the next free space. So, having written ‘ 1 0 1 1 12 1 3 15 16’ in the first column as the price was rising, when the price fell back to 15, he realised hewouldhavetomovetothenextcolumntowrite’15’andthen’13 12 10’asthepricefell further. See Figure 1-2:

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15

The Definitive Guide to Point and Figure

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Ftigure 1-2: Table of rising and falling prices

This immediately showed a flaw in the method. In the first column, he initially missed out 1 4 because the price had not traded at 14, but that meant there was nowhere to put 14 in the second down-column as the price traded at 14 on the way down. So, he had to ensure that all price levels were recorded even though the price never traded at that level and hence one of the basic tenets of the method was established the charts take no account of gaps. See Figure

1-3, which shows the construction ofthe first 3 columns.

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Chapter 1 – Introduction to Point and Figure charts

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Figure 1-3: Table of rising and falling prices

As the columns grew longer, and more columns appeared as the price changed direction, he realised that squared paper would assist in keeping the tables neat and regular and so his record (remember it was not intended to be a chart) started to look like Figure 1-4. The figures written into squares brought the word ‘box’ into the language, although he had no idea at this stage that, firstly, he was drawing a chart and, secondly, that it would one day be called Point and Figure, he would refer to the 14 box, or that the price had increased by 2 boxes.

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The Definitive Guide to Point and Figure

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Figure 1 -4: Early record of prices

Figure 1-4 shows how a Figure chart was born. It is important to note that it was not started as a method of charting, but more as a sequential price recording method.

Traders now had a way of recording price movements that had a number of benefits:

  1. They could trace what the price had done during the day by following the columns.
  2. They could easily see what the high ofthe day was (24).
  3. They could easily see the low (8).
  4. They could see where it closed on the day ( 1 6).
  5. They could see where most of the trading had taken place by looking at the most filled in row (20).
  6. It was a portable system that could be written on the back of an envelope and did not require the plotting rigours and precise time and price scaling of a line or bar chart. Thus, time is not an ingredient of the method.

In an editorial in the Wall Street Journal in 1901, Charles Dow described what we have seen above as the Book method because it was plotted from the ticker, often referred to as the market book.

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Source: Cole, Geo w., Graphs and the Application to Speculation, Peoria 1 936 Figure 1-5: Early Figure chart

Note that he had a vertical scale, choosing to write down the price units only. Note also, that he entitled it ‘Figure Chart’5.

Chapter 1 – Introduction to Point and Figure charts

Once traders realised that they were, in fact, drawing charts, the name ‘Figure Chart’ began to be used. Perhaps the best printed example of exactly how a trader would have drawn a Figure Chart4 is shown by George Cole in his 1 93 6 book. See Figure 1 -5 below.

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4 In fact George Cole made some plotting errors in this chart. Once you become familiar with Point and Figure construction, see if you can spot where he went wrong.

5 The inserted letters above and below the chart are reference points in Cole’s text and have no relevance here.

33

The Definitive Guide to Point and Figure

Some traders would have found it tedious to write down the price all the time, preferring instead to ‘tick off’ or ‘mark off’ the price with a dot, a tick or cross as it hit a particular price level (Figure 1-6). These charts constructed with ticks or crosses started to appear towards the end of the 1 9th century and into the 20th. It is almost as if there were several groups developing the charts to their own specification, often not realising that others were doing the same.

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In 1898, an anonymous writer, calling himself’Hoyle’, published what he called a ‘pamphlet’ entitled The Game in Wall Street and How to Play it Successfully. In it, he described and demonstrated ‘themethodofkeepingrecordsofthefluctuationinthepriceofstocks’.His method shown in Figure 1-7 is exactly the Figure method described above.

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Chapter 1 – Introduction to Point and Figure charts

The method ot keeping the records of the fluctuations in the price of stocks as shown on the charts in this book is as follows :

Suppose St. Paul sells at 85 then goes to 86 and to 8T. Then the price turns and reacts to 85 again. Then it turns again and goes to 86, 87, 88, 89. Then reacts to 8T. Then goes up to 90 and down to 89. The record should be made each day in the order in which the changes occur,

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the corresponding quotations should always be on the same horizontal line.

Source: Hoyle, The Game in Wall Street, J.S., reprinted by Fraser Publishing

Figure 1 -7: Fluctuation chart

Although he described the Figure method in detail, Hoyle’s charts were actually drawn with price scales, and instead of numbers, he had ‘ticks’ as if he was ticking off the prices as they occurred. Figure 1 -8 is an example of a Fluctuation chart from Hoyle’s booklet. The fact that this appeared in a book suggests that it must have been in common usage at that time.

Hoyle states that the “study offluctuations or records ofdaily ups and downs in prices of stocksfurnishes a key to an understanding ofthis whole business n. They are “the smoke and dust ofbattle that hides theplans ofthe generalfrom the men in the thick ofthefightn.

35

The Definitive Guide to Point and Figure

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Although there is no evidence to support the theory, one can imagine that these charts could have been referred to as tick charts, a name that lives on to this day in describing any chart that records prices as they occur, rather than in equal time intervals.

The method of ticking off the price with ticks did not, however, seem to be that widespread. There is more evidence of the use of the letter X, but this did not mean the demise of Figure charts. Richard Wyckoff, writing under the name ‘Rollo’, in 1910 clearly shows a chart constructed with figures, showing the Amalgamated Copper panic of 1903 (Figure 1-9). There is no mention of using Xs or ticks.

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Source: Hoyle. The Game in Wall Street, J.S.• reprinted by Fraser Publishing Figure 1 -8: Fluctuation chart

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Chapter 1 – Introduction to Point and Figure charts

Figure Chart of Amalgamated Copper During the 1903 Panic

Source: Rollo Tape, Studies in Tape Reading and the Application to Speculation, 1 910, reprinted Fraser Publishing

Figure 1-9: Early Figure chart

The next mention of Point and Figure charts was in 1932, when Richard Schabacker published his Technical Analysis epic, entitled, Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits. Although the book is mainly about Bar and Line charts, he included a short section headed ‘Point and Figure charts ‘, which he referred to as a “corruption ofthe ticker chart “. A ticker chart was one where the prices were not grouped by time. This type of chart is referred to as a Tick chart nowadays. Schabacker also states that Point and Figure charts are similar to minor move charts, where a vertical line continued to be drawn until the price reversed by a prescribed amount. At that point, a short horizontal line was drawn and another vertical line was drawn in the other direction. Although he does not show one, these appear to be similar to Manhattan swing charts and are related to Point and Figure charts because they take no account of time.

Interestingly, Schabacker states that “this type of chart has many names, but it is usually known as the Figure or the Point chart “. He concluded the section by saying that Point or Figure charts “offer thepractical trader no advantages over the ordinary vertical line chart ” [bar chart].

In 1933, Richard Wyckoff mentioned and showed a Figure chart (Figure 1-10) in his book Stock Market Technique No. 1 and challenged the reader to interpret it. When you compare the charts you can see that the construction method is exactly the same as that in his 1910 book. He made no mention of any chart constructed with ticks or crosses.

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The Definitive Guide to Point and Figure

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28 Atchison around 18 28 27 1932, where it turned upward for a rise to 64. 27

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its low point in July

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.Can you read this chart? 29 It shows all the one point movements of

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To 64

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The action of Atchison at that time gave ten .distinct buy signals from 18 to 24. It kept urgtng you to buy.

If you know these signals you have an under­ standing of Stock Market Technique. If not you can learn them.

Such a chart gives you better and more ,e-

liable information than a n y insider or adviser can give you. Its forecasts and predic­ tions work out to a high percentage of ac­ curacy.

If you had bought 100 shares of Atchison when this chart told you to buy, around 20, you could have sold it at 60 within six weeks ­ aprofitof$4,000.

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Source: Wyckoff, R.D, Stock Market Technique Number One, reprinted by Fraser Publishing

Figure 1-10: Figure chart construction example

Also, in 1 933, the first book dedicated to Point and Figure charts appeared. De Villiers’ booklet, entitled The Point and Figure Method ofAnticipating Stock Price Movements – Complete Theory and Practice, appears to be the first text dedicated to the Method, indicating that it was by then widespread enough to sell a book describing it. In the book, De Villiers shows an example of a chart constructed with figures, which he calls the Figure Method, as well as one constructed with XS and numbers at key levels, which he calls the Point Method (Figure 1 – 1 1 ) .

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Source: De Villiers, V, The Point and Figure Method of Anticipating Stock Price Movements, 1 933, Reprinted by Windsor Books

Figure 1 -1 1 : Early Figure chart and early Point chart

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Chapter 1 – Introduction to Point and Figure charts

He states that he prefers the Point Method, but does say that Figure charts do have the advantage that the analyst can see the repetition of the figures at a particular level more easily than in Point charts. He goes on to say that Figure charts are “oldfashioned “, so, by 1 93 3 , Point charts – as De Villiers calls them – were starting to replace Figure charts, but it does show that even into the 1 930s Figure charts were still being used. There is no doubt, however, that Point charts were becoming more widespread, reinforced by that fact that throughout De Villiers’ book the charts he shows are those constructed with XS instead ofFigures.

In doing away with figures written in each square, Point and Figure chartists had to have another way of seeing what the price level was. They introduced a vertical price scale so that the price could be marked off quickly as it moved, but they also considered the 5 and 10 levels so important that they wrote the numbers five (5) and zero (0) in the squares at these levels. See Figure 1 – 1 1 .

The original price series, used here as an example, started off as rows of numbers, then the trader started to use columns of numbers, then the columns became Figure charts, then Tick charts and finally Xs replaced the numbers and the ticks, which resulted in Point charts where Xs, 5s and Os were used instead of figures.

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Writing again in 1 93 3 , this time with Owen Taylor in a much more comprehensive work, De Villiers does not refer to, or show, Figure charts at all. All the charts shown in the book are constructed with Xs, 5s and Os as shown in Figure 1-12.

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The Definitive Guide to Point and Figure

In Wyckoff’s 1934 work, Stock Market Technique No.2, he showed the charts constructed with Xs, 5s and Os (Figure 1-13), just as De Villiers and Taylor had done in 1933, which was a complete change from Wyckoff’s book, written a year earlier. So, with Wyckoff persuaded to move to crosses, we can conclude that Figure charts had virtually ceased to exist.

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Source: Wyckoff, R.D, Stock Market Technique Number Two, reprinted by Fraser Publishing

Figure 1-1 3: Early Point chart

In 1936, George Cole’s pioneering work, Graphs and the Application to Speculation, refers to, and shows, a hand-written Figure chart, shown in Figure 1-5 on page 33. He states, however, that some practitioners prefer a chart constructed with Xs instead of Figures and shows an example of a chart constructed with Xs, where each X is half a point. See Figure 1 – 146. What is interesting however is that he did not include 5s and Os at the 5 and 10 levels on the chart. Cole does not refer to De Villiers or Taylor, but does say the method of Figure charts was originated by Charles Dow.

6 Once again, the letters above and below the chart are irrelevant. 40

Chapter 1 – Introduction to Point and Figure charts

Source: Cole, Geo w., Graphs and the Application to Speculation, Peoria 1 936 Figure 1-14: Early Point chart

It is safe to assume that Figure charts gave way to Point charts constructed with XS for two reasons :

Writing down numbers had become tedious.

2. Ifa fractional chart was required like a halfpoint chart in Figure 1-14, they would have

to have written down all the Yz’s as well, which would have made the chart unreadable.

There appears to have been another lull in writing until two very important works appeared:

A.W. Cohen’s 1 947 work, entitled Stock Market Timing, later re-titled as The Chartcraft Method ofPoint & Figure Trading and re-titled again as How to use the Three Point Reversal Method ofPoint and Figure Stock Market Trading; as wel1 as Alexander Wheelan’s 1954 booklet, Study Helps in Point and Figure Technique.

The two books could not have been more different if they had tried. Cohen’s was the very first occurrence of a completely new plotting method which will be discussed in a later chapter. Significantly, the traditional chart constructed with XS – and sometimes 5s and Os at key levels – was dispensed with, in favour of a chart constructed with the letters X and 07, where XS designated up-moves and Os designated down moves. It gave a completely new

7 For readability, Xs and Os should be read as Ex’s and Oh’s rather than crosses and noughts. So an X is an ‘Ex’ rather than a cross, and an 0 is an ‘Oh’ rather than a nought.

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1.

The Definitive Guide to Point and Figure

meaning to Point and Figure charts and their interpretation. Figure 1 – 1 5 shows our original price series constructed with XS and Os.

Figure 1-15: Point and Figure chart example

It is easy to see why Cohen preferred charts constructed with Xs and Os. Charts constructed with Xs, 5s (fives) and Os (zeros) suffer from two problems:

It is confusing, having Xs going up as well as down. Anyone looking at the chart has to work out whether the first column is a rising or falling one, before analysis can take place. This is a waste of time and prone to mistakes.

It is also somewhat off-putting to see rows of Os and 5s amongst the Xs as they can be mistaken for support and resistance levels – which they are not – leading to incorrect interpretation.

Although the X and 0 method was clearer, some authors, namely Alexander Wheelan in 1954, still used charts with Xs, 5s and Os. Nowhere did he use the X and 0 method. In fact, to this day, the X-only method is still the best method when a certain type of Point and Figure chart – called a I -box chart – is drawn. The X-only method (without the 5s and Os) makes the I-box chart clearer than the X and 0 method does. The X and 0 method is, however, the

clearest for all other types of Point and Figure chart.

Books on Point and Figure charts have continued to appear over the last 20 years, from authors such as Aby (1996), Blumenthal (1975), Burke (1990), Dorsey (2001), Markstein ( 1 972), Zieg ( 1 997) and others. Their excellent texts are listed in the References section on page 465. Most have, however, ignored the history and therefore the original methods of

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Chapter 1 – Introduction to Point and Figure charts

construction, leading newcomers to Point and Figure to believe that there is only one type of Point and Figure chart, constructed in only one way. This book will address that issue.

So, that is the history and development of Point and Figure charts. You may find it useful to read it again, because no other method has such a clear development path. It is the understanding ofthe psychology that caused this development path that is important when it comes to interpreting Point and Figure charts. It is almost as if it is the mouthpiece or the voice of the market. The chart moves only when the market moves and only when there is significant movement in the price. It is like watching a ticker tape or the trading of a particular stock on the floor, which sadly does not exist in most major markets anymore. It is a graphic representation of the supply and demand, the fear and greed that is part of the market.

Where did Point and Figure charts get their name?

There has been much discussion and speculation about the origin of the name Point and Figure, and, although it is not that important, it is worth looking at the written evidence.

Charles Dow described the early charts constructed with figures as the ‘Book Method’. They were so called because the charts were plotted from the ticker, also known as the market book, in a sequential process.

As stated earlier, Hoyle did not give the method a name, other than to describe them as ‘fluctuation records’. Although he described the recording of figures, Hoyle’s charts were drawn with price scales, and instead ofnumbers he used ‘ticks’, as ifhe was ticking offthe prices as they occurred.

Richard Wyckoff describes and shows a Figure chart of Amalgamated Copper during the 1 903 panic, but says nothing about Points. So, by 1 903 the Book Method had become known as Figure charts.

It is clear, therefore, where the word ‘Figure’ came from. Figures were used to plot the prices as they occurred. There is, however, some confusion and speculation as to where the word ‘Point’ originated.

Wyckoffreferred to one-point Figure charts in 1933, where the lower case ‘p’ and upper case ‘F’ were deliberate. The charts were Figure charts, plotting one point.

In his 1933 book, entitled Point and Figure Charts, De Villiers states that although he uses Point charts exclusively, Figure charts do have the advantage that the analyst can see the repetition ofthe figures at a particular level more easily than in Point charts. This implies that there were two types of chart: Figure charts constructed with figures; and Point charts where the figures are replaced by Xs. Throughout the book, De Villiers refers to the Point and Figure method, but when referring to charts he refers to them as Points and Figures (note the plural).

43

The Definitive Guide to Point and Figure

This implies that the words ‘Point’ and ‘Figure’ relate to the two methods – the Point method and the Figure method. It is likely therefore, that when referring to his charts the analyst referred to his Points and Figures charts and possibly the combination of the two, using Xs with 5s and Os, was referred to as Point and Figure.

In an apparent complete contradiction, however, writing with Owen Taylor in 1933, De V i l l i e r s c l e a r l y s t a t e s t h a t t h e n a m e , P o i n t a n d F i g u r e , c a m e fr o m p l o t t i n g o n e p o i n t i n f i g u r e s . This is confusing, since in the same year he had earlier referred to Figure charts or Point charts in a book with the same title. In De Villiers and Taylor, they refer to Point and Figure (singular) charts and do not refer to them as separate Point charts or Figure charts. This could have been Taylor’s influence, but it does seem that this was the earliest joining of the two methods into one name and then searching for a reason for doing so. De Villiers and Taylor chose to explain the name as plotting one point in figures. On the evidence this does not seem a good explanation.

In the first ofhis StockMarket Technique books also published in 1933, Wyckoffdiscusses Figure charts constructed with Figures and states that the “one point figure chart ” is the standard for stocks.

Although it was clear from a number of sources that Figure charts were losing favour to Point charts, it still does not explain the name Point and Figure.

George Cole refers to, and shows, a Figure chart similar to De Villiers’. He also states that some practitioners prefer a chart constructed with Xs instead of Figures and shows an example of a Figure chart constructed with Xs where each X is half a point. He calls this chart a “One halfpoint Figure Chart “. One presumes that if each X had been worth one point he would have referred to it as a “One point Figure chart “. This is a similar naming convention to that used by Wyckoff in 1 93 3 . It is possible, therefore, that Point and Figure got its name in one or all of three ways:

1. As De Villiers and Taylor explained in 1933, the charts got their name by plotting one point in figures. This is, however, a flawed reason because it does not explain what the chart would have been called if each X were half a point, as many were.

The name came from a distortion ofthe full name ‘Onepoint Figure chart’ where each X represents one point, or the ‘Halfpoint Figure chart ‘, where each X represents half a point, as Cole and Wyckoff seem to suggest, although neither of them ever referred to their charts as Point and Figure charts.

Writers and practitioners referring to their ‘Point or Figure charts ‘ or their Point and Figure charts meaning their Point charts and/or their Figure charts, which represented the same thing, and this became distorted to Point and Figure charts. This theory is supportedbythefactthatDeVilliersentitledhis 1933bookPointandFigurechartsbut never actually referred to them as Point and Figure in the book, but rather as Point charts

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2.

3.

Chapter 1 – Introduction to Point and Figure charts

and Figure charts as separate types of chart. However, the final piece of conclusive evidence comes from Point and Figure sceptic, Richard Schabacker, who heads a section in his 1932 book as ‘Limitations ofPoint or Figure charts’. Note the use ofthe word ‘or’. All the way through the section, he refers to Point or Figure charts as ifthe analyst had the choice of one or the other but probably kept both. As you have read earlier, he headed another section ‘Point and Figure charts’, but said that this type of chart is usually known as the Figure chart or the Point chart.

The evidence, therefore, seems to favour the third way. Of course, it does not really matter where and how it got its name, because the method we know today is called the Point and Figure method and the charts we draw and analyse are called Point and Figure charts. It is interesting however to show that it was an evolving technique that may well keep evolving. Towards the end of this book, some new Point and Figure techniques, such as moving averages on Point and Figure charts as well as Point and Figure charts of indicators, are covered.

Before moving to the next chapter on Point and Figure construction, here are a few examples of what Point and Figure charts look like. Remember they work just as well for stocks, indices, futures, commodities, bonds and currencies – in fact any financial instrument. Don’t worry about trying to understand the charts at this stage; they will be explained in later sections. The purpose is to get a ‘feel’ for the charts.

45

The Definitive Guide to Point and Figure

Chart 1 -2 is a traditional Point chart of Intel Corp, where XS are used for up- and down­ columns. It is drawn in the early De Villiers style of showing 5s and Os at the 5 and 1 0 levels. You can see now having these rows of numbers can make the chart confusing.

Intel C«poratlon (INTC) <1/ up”<;Iat� Technical Analyst

Chart 1-2: Computer drawn Point chart with 5s and as of Intel Corp.

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Chapter 1 – Introduction to Point and Figure charts

Chart 1-3 is a traditional Point chart of Euro Dollar, where Xs are used for up- as well as down-columns. This version is favoured for I -box charts, which you will learn about later.

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Chart 1 -3: Computer drawn Point chart of Euro Dollar

47

The Definitive Guide to Point and Figure

Chart 1 -4 is a Point and Figure chart of the Gold price, constructed using the Cohen method of Xs and Os. Notice, however, that some of the Xs and Os are replaced by numbers. Because Point and Figure charts don’t have a time-scale, some analysts use a number to show the start of each month instead of an X or O. A, B and C are used for October, November and December.

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Chart 1 -4: Computer drawn Point and Figure chart of gold pm fix showing month numbers

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Finally, Chart 1-5 shows a Point and Figure chart ofReckitt Benckiser pic constructed with Xs and Os which are coloured blue and red to identify the columns and make the chart easier to read.

Chapter 1 – Introduction to Point and Figure charts

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Chart 1-5: Computer drawn Point and Figure chart of Reckitt Benckiser pic

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Trading Data Snapshot

Always verify current market conditions before executing any trade. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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